Economists have also lowered their recession probability scores, although that has done little to dull many recession indicators. Goldman Sachs economists cut their probability of a recession over the ...

Real economic growth in the United States contracted 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025. Although that's an initial estimate, that's a remarkable development because it comes in the middle of a period ...

The U.S. has not been in an economic recession since 2022. The last recession was in 2020, at the very start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The National Bureau of Economic Research, a nonprofit, ...

There are certain words you don’t want to hear in a medical checkup or in an investment bank’s recession outlook: “stable but elevated.” It’s a phrase that could refer to blood pressure, even risk of ...

(Reuters) -Goldman Sachs on Thursday trimmed its U.S. recession probability to 30% from 35% for the next twelve months on easing uncertainty around President Donald Trump's tariff policies after the U ...

The new US-China trade thaw hasn't shaken Wall Street's biggest bear. "We continue to see a recession as our base case. Although tariffs have come down, the effective US tariff rate is still the ...

The number of companies mentioning the term "recession" when discussing their financial results has shot up to its highest level since 2022. According to a study by financial data firm FactSet, of the ...

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession as a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months.” Three criteria – ...

There are many factors that drive bull and bear markets for stocks, but arguably the first among equals is the business cycle. More than a year ago, TMC Research noted that the outlook for stocks ...